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Who Flees Conflict? A Big-Data Approach to the Determinants of Forced Migration

Every year, millions of people encounter political violence and some leave their homes in pursuit of safety. What factors influence whether or not a person migrates to escape conflict? We use a multi-year longitudinal dataset of 63.5 million …

Estimating the Impact of Drone Strikes on Civilians Using Call Detail Records

Drone strikes are a fixture of modern U.S. counterterrorism, often advertised as a “surgical,” less-risky alternative to ground operations. The effects of drone strikes, however, are less precise than proponents suggest. Using a dataset of over 12 …

Understanding Majoritarian Violence: Evidence from Hate Crimes and Crowd Violence in India

Extralegal violence threatens human rights and public order in many societies. These threats are growing especially fast in India, where--against the backdrop of communal tensions at the national level--mobs increasingly punish transgressions of …

Public Opinion and Foreign Policy in India

India is increasingly important in world politics, yet we know little about how Indians view international affairs. This paper analyzes a unique collection of Indian public opinion data about major foreign powers spanning seven decades, The paper …

Emotions and Flight from Violence: Evidence from Punjabi/English Video Archives

When people are exposed to violence, do their emotional experiences help explain what they will do in order to survive? Which emotions predict politically consequential strategies like fleeing violence? I analyze an under-used and widely available …

Fighting the Elements: Assessing a Sino-Indian Conflict at Doklam

Tensions remain high between India and China over territorial control of the Doklam Plateau. What arc would a military confrontation over this territory follow? I analyze the capabilities and doctrines of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China …

Situational Appraisals and Criminal Violence: Lab-in-the-field Evidence from Kenya

How do people make decisions about their safety when they are imminently threatened by violence? In this poster, I design and field novel experimental manipulations in a large lab-in-the field omnibus study in Kenya to show how individual perceptions …

Situational Appraisals Shape Preferences for Escalation and Conciliation in Foreign Policy Crises

What determines whether the public supports aggressive, conciliatory, or business-as-usual strategies in response to military and foreign policy crises? What explains why similar and reasonable people diverge in their preferred policies for dealing …