Subjective Perceptions Shape Displacement Decisions during Civil Wars: Evidence from Afghanistan

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Abstract

How do people decide whether to flee their homes or remain during long-running civil wars? I argue that civilians’ perceptions of local security and the credibility of armed actors’ communications played a critical role in shaping migration decisions, even after accounting for external factors like material resources and the local violence environment. Using nationally representative survey data from Afghanistan (2017–2019), displacement records, and violence metrics, this paper shows demonstrates that lower perceived security and distrust in combatant communications were strongly associated with higher displacement rates. The findings hold after adjusting for environmental and socioeconomic factors, underscoring that perceptions, though subjective, are pivotal in expliaing migration behavior. The paper also demonstrates that certain types of violence, U.S. airstrikes and counterterrorism operations, were shown to disproportionately degrade perceptions of armed actor credibility, potentially exacerbating displacement. These results highlight the need for conflict strategies that prioritize credible messaging, and attention to civilian perceptions of local security.

Aidan Milliff
Aidan Milliff
Assistant Professor